Over the past months since President Donald Trump took back the office, the United States has witnessed an unprecedented surge in immigration enforcement. From airports to residential neighborhoods, from city streets to factory floors, reports of immigration officers rounding up undocumented immigrants have dominated national headlines.

Proposals for mass deportation have become not just political slogans, but “realistic” options for policymakers. But is it really realistic?

Behind this seemingly simple policy choice are hundreds of billions of dollars in costs, ripple effects that would profoundly alter the structure of the economy, and changes in the fate of countless families.

If these measures are meant to make America “safer and stronger,” then one fundamental question must be answered first:

First of all, let’s count the number of undocumented immigrants.

As of 2022, there are approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States.

That's 3.3% of the total population.

At Least 13 States Surpass 175K Undocumented Immigrants

In California, nearly 25% of population are undocumented immigrants.

Note: Data is as of 2019.

Source: Migration Policy institute

But what does 11 million people mean?

If considered as a state, their population would rank among the nation’s top 10.

comparable to Georgia’s entire population.

These people, though, are more than just numbers. They've been living here for ten, twenty years, or more. They work, pay taxes, and raise their families here.

They are your neighbors, taxi drivers, the ones who keep your garden pretty and keep your house clean.

They are the ones who offered care and support for your kids in school and for your parents in hospitals. 

However, if the mass deportation program goes forward, their fate could be irrevocably altered in just a few weeks.

The process of expelling an immigrant can be roughly divided into four stages. At every stage, it consumes huge amounts of fiscal spending.

And all at the expense of the American taxpayer.

How is the government going to arrest hundreds or tens of millions of immigrants in a short period of time?

The most likely way is to rely on the cooperation of local law enforcement agencies. massive raids on neighborhoods, factories, and construction sites.

And even take people directly from hospitals, schools, and shelters.

The financial costs are just as staggering.

According to the American Immigration Council, each arrest – when factoring in the cost of transporting an arrestee to a detention center – amounts to roughly $6,737 per person.

Overall, to execute the entire deportation program, the government would need to spend an astonishing $89.3 billion solely on arrests.

Currently, there are approximately 40,000^[1] detention beds across the United States, which is nowhere near enough to support the need to hold more than one million people per year.

As a result, the government will need to build new detention facilities and pay high operating costs over time.

The average cost per case handled by the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) is $1,719.57.

The Office of the Principal Legal Advisor (OPLA) has an average cost of $850 per case.

However, the U.S. immigration court system is already overburdened.

There are already over 2.5 million pending cases in 2023.

If another 1 million deportation cases per year are added, the entire system will be completely overwhelmed.

Therefore, a large number of new judges would need to be recruited to handle the cases.

Estimates of government spending on legal proceedings are expected to reach $34.1 billion.

Equivalent to approximately $100 per U.S. resident^[2].

Some immigrants come from countries that are far away, such as China, India, Venezuela, African countries

Not every country is willing to accept deportees.

In these cases, the U.S. government has no option but to rely on costly charter flights to return migrants to their home countries. Each chartered flight is estimated to cost approximately $17,000 per hour. Factoring in airfare, security escorts, and document processing, the total government expenditure on deportations is projected to reach $24.1 billion.

Considering these costs, even under the most conservative estimate, deporting all 13.3 million individuals at once would amount to an unprecedented financial burden.

However, in practice, it would be nearly impossible to evict so many people at once, so evictions would need to be spread out over a number of years.

It is estimated that if 1 million people were evicted each year for 10.6 years, the total cost would amount to about $967.9 Billion^[1].

And these expenses only represent the direct costs of deportation, without counting the broader economic impact.

The United States is a country that relies heavily on immigrants. especially in labor-intensive industries such as construction, agriculture, and hospitality.

What would happen if we lose them?

Specific occupations: trades such as plasterers, roofers, and painters, where about 30% of the workforce are undocumented immigrants.

But in a family, as the parent, as the child, they will lose almost 100% of the stability of life if they are forced apart.

Undocumented immigrants have a labor participation rate of 90%. while the labor participation rate for native-born Americans is only 61.3%.

1 in 20 workers are undocumented immigrants Undocumented immigrants play an important role in the labor force in many states.

Undocumented immigrants aren’t just numbers—they’re the people who keep daily life running smoothly. If they were gone, everyday conveniences would take a hit.

Uber waiting times will be double. Deliveries may expect delays. Keeping your gardens neat and beautiful without a hardworking gardener would be much harder.

If they are massively deported, it will be very difficult for American businesses to fill those positions, leading to higher prices, inflation and recession.

Ultimately, all Americans will have to bear the consequences.